HOW THE NEXT PRESIDENT WILL BE CHOSEN

Oh my, what exciting times we live in! I can't wait to see what happens! On a personal level I would back either Cyril Ramaposa or Tokyo Sexwale as I believe that they would run the country in the same sort of manner in which they run their businesses - successfully and profitably. However having said that - time will tell! One thing that has not been discussed in the article is the different "tribal" relations - Zuma is a Zulu, hence the stong support from KwaZulu Natal - but how will that help him in Gauteng for example where Zulu's are not nearly as much revered?

During the Apartheid struggle, all the native nations came together as one to defeat the oppression, but will this alliance be maintained now that the 'common enemy' has been dealt with and is no longer a threat? Time will tell!

As I said in the beginning - My these are exciting times that we live in and I can't wait to see what happens next!

Regards

Nikki

How the next president will be chosen
Zukile Majova and Mbuyisi Mgibisa

06 November 2006 01:59


What if the conference happened tomorrow? Surprisingly, ANC deputy president Jacob Zuma would not be a shoo-in. While his election machinery is already in motion he would not secure victory and would probably have to enter party coalitions and bargain hard using the patronage at his disposal.

The ability to dispense positions across the state is a formidable weapon in the hands of the front-runner candidate and, ironically, was bequeathed to Zuma by Mbeki, who has centralised the power to elect executive mayors, the premiers and the Cabinet in the ANC presidency. Zuma could use this to great effect to secure his own victory at the 2007 conference. Our investigation of the power play in ANC regions and provinces indicates that Zuma is battling to win over traditional Mbeki supporters. Zuma is not up against Mbeki, as the succession race is sometimes portrayed. In fact, he is up against an unnamed candidate whom Mbeki is yet to anoint; and he is also up against a compromise candidate, such as Kgalema Motlanthe, who could emerge to maintain unity in the party.

Such a compromise candidate would need the endorsement of both men to succeed. By our calculations, Zuma already has control of KwaZulu-Natal and the Free State and has diluted support in traditional Mbeki strongholds such as the Eastern Cape and Limpopo. But he has been rejected in North West and is battling to launch a full campaign in Gauteng, the Western Cape and Northern Cape.

Zuma hopes to make inroads in possible hung provinces such as the Eastern Cape, Gauteng, Limpopo and Mpumalanga, to force a stalemate at the conference, in which case provinces such as the Western Cape and Northern Cape could play a vital power-broking role. The Youth League has staked its future on support for Zuma, defending him through all his tribulations. It has insisted that Zuma is the natural successor to Mbeki, as ANC tradition provides for the deputy automatically to become president.

The Women’s League, however, is a different proposition altogether, as it took a highly critical stance during his rape trial. Despite his acquittal, the women took a dim view of some of the statements he made under cross examination. An Mbeki candidate, or an incumbent such as Motlanthe, is expected to enjoy support in North West and can also count on the vote of power-broking provinces (Western Cape and Northern Cape), which have a combined membership of 54 700, according to the latest audit of ANC membership.

From Durban to PolokwaneIn 1994, at the ANC’s Durban conference, Mbeki first displayed his talent for ruthless politicking. He elbowed aside unionist Cyril Ramaphosa to claim the mantle of deputy president and effective successor to the uhuru president, Nelson Mandela. Mbeki’s prospects improved immensely after SACP secretary general Chris Hani was assassinated by right-wing killers in 1993.

The two had been rivals for many years and Hani was being punted by the likes of Winnie Madikizela-Mandela, at the time an influential figure, and had the blessing of South African Communist Party stalwart Joe Slovo.

Polokwane could see a complete change of the ANC guard. Mbeki began to sculpt the party in his image at the 1997 conference in Mafikeng but was forced to compromise on Mosioua Lekota, who ran against Steve Tshwete (an Mbeki henchman) and beat him hands-down. Lekota is still the national chair of the party, but he has been neatly co-opted by Mbeki.

The 2002 Stellenbosch conference took place when Zuma was at his weakest (on its eve, the first corruption allegations against him were revealed) and Mbeki at his zenith. Zuma maintained the deputy presidency, though he showed no sign at the time of having an eye on the big prize.

In a top leadership structure dominated by the president’s men and women, Motlanthe was elected secretary general and supported by the left because he came out of the trade union movement. All top positions were uncontested, revealing the Mbeki culture of not encouraging open contestation. William Mervin Gumede, author of Thabo Mbeki and the Battle for the Soul of the ANC, says “ANC conferences are now held at the same intervals as elections, and are largely stage-managed events.

Important decisions are taken well in advance and, though the election of office bearers is still ‘free and fair’, only the foolhardy stand against candidates pre-approved by the leadership. “Given the public nature of the nomination procedure delegates who support alternative candidates find themselves marked for ostracisation, marginalisation and exclusion from office. The party leadership frowns on any attempt to mobilise support to remove national or local officials."

The Polokwane conference is going to be a ruthless turning point and possibly be more tightly fought than any of the party’s previous post-ap artheid conferences. A national executive committee (NEC) member from KwaZulu-Natal said lobbying started a long time ago and horse-trading would continue to the very last minute.

“People have been talking to people and poaching trusted loyalists from the other camps, and this will intensify as the conference approaches.“At the moment it looks like the race between an Mbeki candidate and Zuma will go right to the end. “It’s clear that Zuma is running with it at the moment, but a lot can change between now and December 2007,” said the NEC member.

Eastern Cape: the mother of all provinces. A home base in the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal or Gauteng is critical for any candidate going for the top job. These three provinces, in order, hold the highest number of votes at the conference. The mother of all ANC provinces, the Eastern Cape, held the trump card at the Stellenbosch conference in 2002, fielding 655 voting delegates -- almost double the 393 delegates from the second-placed KwaZulu-Natal. It is still likely to be the most powerful province, which explains why it is gripped by factionalism.

The KwaZulu-Natal provincial executive committee has publicly announced that Zuma will be its candidate, while the Eastern Cape and Gauteng have yet to indicate whom they will back. Control of the Eastern Cape is going to be tricky for both factions as the regions in the province are torn between Mbeki and Zuma.

The OR Tambo region in the former homeland capital of Mthatha is the country’s biggest region, with more than 25 000 affiliates, and, along with Chris Hani and Ukhahlamba, is drumming up support for Zuma. As recently as August, Zuma visited Mthatha, soon after which the region made a proposal for the limitation of the powers of the president to appoint premiers and mayors.

Mbeki has been criticised for abusing these powers to entrench patronage. The Nelson Mandela region in Port Elizabeth, the Amathole region in East London (the province’s second biggest region, with more than 17 000 members) and the Alfred Nzo and Cacadu regions have called for a third term for Mbeki. But the provincial executive committee wants a compromise candidate to run the party for one term to heal rifts.

The provincial mandate ahead of the 2007 conference depends largely on who, between Mbeki ally Stone Sizani and Zuma backer Mcebisi Jonas, wins the provincial chairmanship at the Eastern Cape conference on November 30.

KwaZulu-Natal. KwaZulu-Natal is a no-go area for the Mbeki faction. It is where Mbeki’s loudest campaigner, Premier S’bu Ndebele, has been pelted with stones by Zuma supporters.

Free State. The Free State has been a hotbed of anti-Mbeki sentiment for the past few years because the president has repeatedly overlooked provincial chairperson Ace Magashule for the position of premier. This will not easily translate into support for Zuma; a compromise candidate could possibly count on support there.

Hung provinces Gauteng, Limpopo and Mpumalanga are all split. Gauteng and North-West were the only two provinces that backed Mbeki at the National General Council last year when he first faced open rebellion from his ranks. Gauteng chair and Premier, Mbhazima Shilowa, is a strong supporter of the president and his position reflects the majority opinion. That attitude is also reflected by the SACP’s position in Gauteng, which is critical of the national SACP’s opposition to Mbeki. Zuma has addressed several gatherings in Limpopo, where his supporters believe he is popular. But ANC provincial chairperson Sello Moloto is a close Mbeki ally who has not associated himself with Zuma support activities organised in the province.

Our assessment is that Zuma will not enjoy an easy ride in these three provinces. Power brokers?

The Northern Cape ANC is led by John Block, who was removed from his post as provincial minister because of allegations of misuse of funds. Northern Cape is a difficult province to call. The Western Cape remains a difficult province for the Zuma camp and there are no immediate plans to take the Zuma campaign caravan to the province. The province is not necessarily divided along Zuma and Mbeki factions, but is split along ethnic lines -- one camp loyal to provincial chair and Premier, Ibrahim Rasool, and another loyal to provincial secretary Mcebisi Skwatsha. Both are known to fly the Mbeki flag. Northern Cape and the Western Cape pack small punches at elective conferences, but they could emerge as power brokers.The road to the topThe process to nominate an ANC president and the party’s national leadership, the national executive committee (NEC), starts at ANC branches. The next president will be chosen by branches with the rest of the public having very little say.

It is in general branch meetings that ANC members, who have paid their fees and whose branches are in good standing with ANC constitutional requirements, begin the process by nominating candidates for all six official positions in the party, including NEC members. To be in good standing, branches should hold a meeting at least once in a year and have more than 100 paid-up members.

The six official positions of the ANC, elected separately at the conference through a secret ballot, are: president, deputy president, chairperson, secretary general, deputy secretary general and treasurer general.

Branches are supposed to discuss ANC leadership by observing guidelines contained in the discussion document Through the Eye of the Needle and then nominate leaders. The document provides that ANC leaders must be selfless and of high moral fibre (perhaps thereby providing an easy sifting mechanism). Once the branch has drawn up a candidate list, it takes it to the regional executive committee (REC), where the lists are consolidated and debated further to formulate a regional mandate. The process then goes to the provincial executive committee, which convenes a provincial general council -- constituted by all branches in good standing.

The list is debated further until a consensus is reached and then a provincial candidate list is formulated. After the list is finalised, the province then has an official position on the candidate of its choice. For the first time, in 2007 the ANC Women’s League and ANC Youth League will not only send voting delegates to the national conference, they will also be able to send in nominations for the national leadership.

A process similar to that of the mother body will be followed by both the women’s and youth wings. After receiving all the nominations from provinces and the leagues, the electoral commission, which is made up of long-standing senior members of the ANC, compiles a national consolidated list. This is distributed to branches before the conference.

People who were not nominated through the process can be nominated at the national conference from the floor, provided they are supported by at least 25% of the voting delegates present. -- Mbuyisi Mgibisa and Zukile Majova